Weekly Bulletin: Upgrading Credit

Unprecedented policy actions to limit the coronavirus shock and sharply lower valuations have improved the outlook for credit, in our view. Major central banks are committed to keep rates low and greatly expand their balance sheets. This underpins demand for corporate bonds and selected sovereign credit. We upgrade our view on global investment grade credit to a moderate overweight from underweight and keep high yield as an overweight.

Key points

  • Policy & Valuations: We upgrade our tactical views on credit on extraordinary central bank support and substantially more attractive valuations.
  • Stalling Rally: The initial market rally from historic US policy actions has stalled as worsening economic data and a rising human toll dominate sentiment.
  • Data Watch: Jobless claims and consumer sentiment data this week are likely to show more signs of economic damage caused by the coronavirus.

The opinions expressed are as of April 2020 and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. The above descriptions are meant to be illustrative only.