Weekly Bulletin: Gauging The Virus Shock

Global economic activity is being frozen to stem the coronavirus pandemic. Yet implications for asset prices will depend on the cumulative impact of the growth shortfall over time. We believe that policy actions to cushion the impact of virus shock are nothing short of a revolution. Execution is a risk, but if successful, the cumulative impact of the virus should be well below that seen in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) — despite the historic scale of the initial shock.

Key points

  • Not a Repeat of 2008: The overwhelming policy response to cushion the coronavirus shock is set to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, but execution is key.
  • Oil Slump: Oil prices slumped to historic levels, as a huge demand shortfall has squeezed the limited storage capacity.
  • Data Watch: This week’s US consumer confidence data will shed light on how much impact the containment measures have hit consumer spending.

The opinions expressed are as of April 2020 and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. The above descriptions are meant to be illustrative only.